Weeks where decades happen

Jul 28, 2025

Welcome to a Monday update from Unmade. Today: Why we will hear a lot more about media consolidation over the next few weeks.

Plus, a good day on the Unmade Index for Southern Cross Austereo while Pureprofile slips despite delivering decent full year numbers.

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An eventful August

Nine sets a new course

We have one of those months coming up.

By the time August ends, we’re going to have a much clearer picture of how the Australian media landscape will look over the next decade.

The Lenin quote “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happens,” may be a tad overused, but much like the early months of Covid we’re arriving at such a period.

First comes the future of Nine, our biggest (for now, at least) locally-based media company.

This coming Monday, Domain’s shareholders will be voting on the proposal to sell to Costar. Given that Nine holds more than 60% and will be voting in favour, a yes vote seems certain. Then on Thursday next week, Domain’s shares will trade on the ASX for the last time.

The deal will be completed on August 27, when the almost $3bn spoils from that Domain sale will be distributed.

By one of those non-coincidental coincidences, at 9.30am that day, Nine’s CEO Matt Stanton will update shareholders on the company’s full year results. It will be a one-off chance for him to bury bad news as the market waits to hear how he and the Nine board intend to spend the company’s share.

The indication is that after distributing at least half directly to Nine shareholders, there will be more than $700m left.

The least ambitious thing would be to simply use the cash to pay down Nine’s debt, and to continue to trade with its existing assets of a TV network, streaming platform, publishing operation and ill-fitting radio network. That would virtually guarantee a future of managed decline.

Shareholders will be hoping for more. At the very least, a vision for how Nine will execute a plan to be last one standing as a live sports-led local media player. That might just include buying the least disrupted of the traditional mediums - outdoor. You could make the argument that outdoor is only another form of screen media. Whether that’s QMS or Ooh Media remains to be seen.

What is certain though is that the market will not accept the Nine board having spent the last six months of the Domain sale process without developing a new strategy that can be articulated at the update. So August 27 will be a big day.

Ten’s new direction

The future arrives for Network Ten owner Paramount even sooner. On Friday the Trump administration gave the green light to the company’s takeover by Skydance. The deal will now rapidly close. Unless something goes wrong, it completes on Friday of next week, bringing an end to the two-year sale saga.

Skydance has done the deal primarily for the Paramount studios operation and Paramount+ streaming service. What ambitions it has for its faltering broadcast television division around the world will soon become clear.

At the very least, look to the UK, where Paramount’s commercial TV operation Channel 5 has had its advertising sales outsourced to Sky Media for the last decade.

Away from broadcast TV, the move will see Paramount become a fiercer competitor for its rivals. The Paramount+ streaming service is one of the weaker user experiences which holds back its content. The Oracle-aligned Skydance should change that.

And billionaire owners in the Ellisons who actually want to be owners will unlock future investment in Paramount. They’re not buying the business to shrink it, and will inevitably pour money in to top tier sports rights acquisitions. Whether that means Australian sport remains to be seen though.

Earnings season

And for the rest of the ASX-listed media players next month also represents earnings season. For some it’s half year earnings, but for most it’s full year.

For Southern Cross Austereo, Monday August 25, should be the moment the company finally gets to announce that its streaming platform Listnr had a full year of profitability. It announced Listnr’s first profitable half in February.

Finally, we may see a long-overdue rebrand when Southern Cross Austereo renames itself Listnr. Former CEO Grant Blackley once said this could only be justified when Listnr became profitable. This looks like the moment.

And ARN Media will be announcing its half year numbers next month, although it hasn’t announced a date yet. Having so far failed in its attempts to capture rival SCA, the market will be looking for other news. My long shot prediction: The company goes for the big bang, taking The Kyle & Jackie O Show national on Kiis, and Christian O’Connell national on Gold, accompanied by the appointment of former SCA content chief Dave Cameron.

Then there’s the third free to air player, Seven West Media. SWM will be taking its results to the market earlier in results season, on Tuesday August 12.

Seven has drifted through a year of cost cutting since the departure of CEO James Warburton last April. The axing of revenue chief Kurt Burnette destabilised the company’s sales operation and was not helped by the farcical arrival and departure of replacement Henry Tajer after the appointment was rejected by some trading partners unhappy with the treatment of the popular Burnette.

A year into the top job, CEO Jeff Howard will be expected to offer a new direction.

TV's bloodiest day

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Consolidation is here.

Radio active on the Unmade Index, against the trend

Radio players Southern Cross Austereo and ARN Media outplayed the rest of the Unmade Index on Monday, moving up by 5.1% and 2.2% respectively.

The changes saw the two companies once again switch places for biggest market capitalisation. SCA landed on $148.7m, with ARN Media on $147.1m.

Their smaller rival Sports Entertainment Group, owner of SEN Radio, had a much worse day, losing 10% to land on $74.9m.

Meanwhile, research house Pureprofile had a disappointing day, despite posting decent results to the ASX. The company grew its full year EBITDA profits by 18% to $5.2m. However the number was slightly below market expectations, leading to a 6.1% decline in share price.

Ooh Media and IVE Group were both off by 1.7%

The Unmade Index closed on 577.8 points, a fall of 0.81% for the day.