Could Google lose Chrome, and how bad would that be for advertisers?
Welcome to best of the day with me, your Unmade learner driver. Overnight in the US the Justice Department formally launched into the reasons why Google should lose its Chrome browser and be banned from paying Apple and others billions for search defaults. In Australia, a report that the ABC and Ooh Media have done a deal is furiously denied by all, and the Unmade Index shows some small time winners and losers after the long weekend.
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Google’s Chrome browser is a big deal
I wrote a piece for Mumbrella this morning about the US DOJ opening the remedy stage of Google’s search monopoly trial, and it struck me just how central the Chrome browser is to the most profitable advertising ecosystem the world has ever seen.
The DOJ lawyers want Google to sell Chrome, to stop paying billions for search defaults, and to share some data with competitors.
Chrome is the most relatable of these asks: a majority of everyone on the internet uses it (66% browser share globally) and it gets the job done. It has allowed Google to largely stay out of the hardware game and yet still collect massive amounts of beautifully monetisable data, and it means Google has had to pay nothing for the majority of search defaults. It works with the Google suite of apps and other Google products better than anything else, it’s fast, and it gives Google massive influence in how websites are built and maintained.
I wrote the piece, and after deadline spoke with In Marketing We Trust’s CEO Paul Hewett, who pointed out the demise of Chrome would be bad news for advertisers — in the short term.
“Those data signals actually help our customers. So yes, it's a monopoly and I will agree with that. I have to be careful what I'm saying, obviously as a Google partner. But I do agree with the fact that those data signals, they're rich and they provide our customers with the ability to understand what consumers are doing across different Google services, and serve them really relevant ads at the right time.”
“My fear is that without this stream of data that ads could become less effective.”
The curious thing is that the DOJ case comes after 20 years of dominance and at a time when the search giant is seriously challenged for the first time. Hewett says LLMs like ChatGPT, Perplexity and the inclusion of AI overviews in search results have taken a serious bite out of search volumes and ad click-through.
“One of the things that's been reported consistently is a decrease in the click through rate. This isn't just our data. This is third-party research. People are reporting it's somewhere between 15-25%. And that is largely put down to the inclusion of AI overviews into commercial searches.”
I’ll be including more of Hewett’s interview tomorrow in the Mumbrellacast.
Deal or no deal?
The Australian reported this week that Ooh Media and the ABC are about to sign an advertising deal in which the national broadcaster would pay Ooh up to $4 million for four years and provide it with news content into the bargain.
While it seems an agreement is on the table — News Corp’s existing news deal with the ABC expires halfway through this year — the ABC says The Australian got it wrong on numbers: they should be zero. See the ABC’s full-throated rejection, along with some other shots at “erroneous reporting”, here — “Correcting James Madden in The Australian”.
Unmade Index
IVE Group (+3.4%) and Seven (+3.85%) gained a little ground today, Seven lifting back up to its recent default price of 14c. Southern Cross (-3.62%) and Vinyl (-3.06%) offset those gains. In the bigger stocks, Nine lost a little and Domain gained a corresponding amount, leaving the index more or less even for the day, if you’re an optimist.
More from Mumbrella
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Can Liz Hayes fix Spotlight after a horror year?
In short-form video, don't mistake efficiency for effectiveness
Forced sale of Chrome on cards in big threat to Google
Have a great night — Tim’s on holiday, so I’ll be here all week.
Hal Crawford
Editorial Director - Mumbrella
hcrawford@mumbrella.com.au