BotW: Trump bats for the platforms; As Vinyl owns up to a $15.8m loss, can it reinvent its publishing model with AI?
Welcome to a somewhat late edition of Best of the Week, written on a bright, cooooold day in Evandale, Tasmania, after a hectic few days in Sydney including Thursday’s Mumbrella Travel Summit, which was mega.
Incidentally, I learned a lesson this week in always checking that your online booking has actually made it into your Accor app. It’s an interesting challenge finding somewhere to sleep with 35,000 visiting marathon runners in town.
As I say, today’s edition is a bit late - it’s because I only belatedly noticed that the Vinyl Group annual results quietly dropped yesterday afternoon and I couldn’t resist digging into them.
Also today: As Donald Trump goes in to bat for Meta and Google, Australia’s TV companies head for Canberra.
Happy National Toasted Marshmallow Day.
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The Donald vs The News Bargaining Incentive
One of the things currently puzzling me is that some of our media companies seem to still be genuinely under the impression that - a year and a half since Meta pulled the plug on its relationship with the local news industry and nine months since the government outlined its News Bargaining Incentive idea - we might yet see some legislation.
This week, Donald Trump made it look even less likely.
In the 18 months since communications minister Michelle Rowland and finance minister Stephen Jones rushed into a Friday afternoon press conference to react to the Meta exit, a lot has changed. Neither minister is still in the role. The Meta money stopped flowing. The Google deals became smaller and shorter. Generative AI emerged as a content theft engine.
The key wind change occurred after Jones and Rowland outlined their new policy late last year. The policy would see platforms with local revenues of at least $250,000 per year ordered to pay a levy. But this could be offset by entering into deals with local publishers.
But then Donald Trump returned to power, and levy became the most dangerous word in politics. The public consultation paper on the news bargaining incentive, promised “early” this year, still hasn’t emerged.
In the time since, Facebook’s founder Mark Zuckerberg has won the ear of Donald Trump, reportedly making regular visits to the White House.
Trump appears to have been persuaded that any form of digital levy is an anti-American act. That’s despite next to no local tax being paid by the likes of Meta and Google on their giant Australian revenues.
According to Trump in a Truth Social post this week: “Digital Taxes, Digital Services Legislation, and Digital Markets Regulations are all designed to harm, or discriminate against, American Technology.”
There was a threat: “Unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs on that Country's (sic) Exports to the U.S.A., and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips.”
And more of a threat: “Show respect to America and our amazing Tech Companies or, consider the consequences!”
I fail to see what will incentivise the government to take on this fight.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday the free to air TV companies will be headed to Canberra to ask for help from the Australian taxpayer instead.
The Shaping A Nation showcase is designed at bolstering the argument from Free TV Australia that the value delivered by the networks to the public is such that the networks should be allowed access to the airwaves for free.
It’s an argument that has been made effectively for years by the networks for ever-increasing discounts. Now they don’t want to pay at all. My view is that the ability to talk to millions of people every day via the airwaves is a hugely valuable asset, which belongs to the public and should be paid for.
In last night’s episode of Medialand, on ABC Radio National, I finally got to test that argument with Free TV’s CEO Bridget Fair. Although she did not change my mind, she made her case well.
I’ll be in Canberra on Tuesday night to see whether the pollies buy it.
Fragyl Group?
Speaking of people who tweet in the style of Donald Trump, the last afternoon of results season saw the Josh Simons-led Vinyl Group share its annual numbers.
The company is two months away from what it says will be its first profitable quarter. If history is an indicator of future performance, that will take some doing.
Last night’s annual report contains, not for the first time, a statutory warning that based on its current trajectory, Vinyl Group may not be able to continue as a going concern.
Before the company disclosed hard financial numbers in its annual report, it dedicated a double page spread of unsourced data showing a giant growth in “social views”. In July it says it achieved 116m views in this magical metric. Not bad for a country with a population of 27m.
Vinyl may not be the biggest business on the Unmade Index, but it is amongst the most interesting. Its publishing arm, Vinyl Media, includes screen industry franchise Variety Australia, music franchise Rolling Stone Australia, horoscopes-and-shopping franchise Refinery29 and Mediaweek.
Vinyl’s music platforms arm includes music industry connector Vampr, credits database Jaxsta, NFT shop Serenade and storefront Vinyl.com.
Here are nine things we learned:
Vinyl Group brought in revenues of $14.4m. But made a loss of $15.8m (down a tad from the previous year’s loss of $16.8m).
The media business had revenues of $11.1m while the platforms brought in $3.3m.
There may be some closures. According to Simons: “We will continue to simplify the portfolio and consider retiring or repositioning products where returns do not meet our thresholds, with the objective of sustained revenue growth, higher gross margin and profitability.”
In its first four months of owning Mediaweek, the title brought in revenue of $494,000 and lost $135,000. In FY25 Mediaweek’s revenue fell by 6.7%. Across the wider Vinyl Media group, revenue fell by 10.8%
Vinyl Group is betting on AI to make its publications more profitable. It says it will “optimise the media division by targeting sustainable margins and expanding revenue through investment in artificial intelligence capabilities". It thinks it will be able to sell this ChatGPT journalism overseas, delivering “global growth”.
Online store Vinyl.com is now selling CDs as well as vinyl records.
Vinyl Group has written down the valuation of Vampr to nil. Simons was the founder of Vampr and joined what is now Vinyl Group when he sold his platform to the company.
The top end of the Vinyl Group share register is dominated by Wisetech’s billionaire founder Richard White. Realwise Group Holdings owns 40.1% of the stock while Songtradr, of which White is an investor, owns another 16.7%
Vinyl Group seems to be confident it will win its legal battle with Brag Media co-founder Luke Girgis, who it fired. According to the annual report: “The group has assessed the claim and has not recorded any liability on the merits of the claim”.
Vinyl Group says it will be unveiling its new AI-led vision of publishing in September. September starts on Monday.
Index ends the week up
The Unmade Index continued to bounce around on Friday, as the market continued to consider the outlook for Nine now its ownership of Domain is over, and whether it’s a buyer of Southern Cross Austereo.
Nine was up by 3.4% yesterday. That was after falling 12.2% on Thursday and rising by 8% on Wednesday. The company’s share price will likely see a big fall next month after paying out its 53c Domain dividend.
Meanwhile, Southern Cross Austereo fell 7% as the likelihood of an imminent Nine bid faded somewhat. That was after jumping by 22.7% on Monday, losing 4.25% on Tuesday, then regaining 5% on Wednesday and another 2.4% on Thursday.
Elsewhere on the index, Ooh Media edged back above a market capitalisation of $900m.
Vinyl Group grew by 7.7% thanks to a late trade just before the market closed.
The Unmade Index closed on 582.3 points, up by 2.36% for the day.
More from Mumbrella…
Bungled: ANZ is guilty of using corporate speak in sackings fiasco
The winners of the 2025 Mumbrella Travel Marketing Awards have landed
Time to leave you to Saturday.
If you’d like more from me, you can find last night’s episode of Medialand I mentioned earlier in your usual podcast places.
I’m also on today’s episode of Game Changers Radio. We discuss the Southern Cross Austereo, ARN Media, and Nine Radio results.
And earlier in the week on the Mumbrellacast, we covered off results season plus the Australian Association of National Advertisers’ fast food push.
We’ll be back with more soon.
Have a great weekend
Toodlepip…
Tim Burrowes
Publisher - Unmade + Mumbrella
tim@unmade.media
The is one of the most fascinating stories that just keeps getting more difficult to read without feeling a bit angry. And yet, I can’t look away! It’s incredible how much money has been lost with never ending promises of a bright future. Imagine all the amazing business ideas and models created by women and migrants that would never get a look in because of this country’s entrenched boys club, and yet this business gets a runway that just goes on and on. I can’t wait for the next update.