Australia's most influential radio show has never had fewer listeners. The ABC's audience problem is getting worse
Welcome to a Wednesday edition of Unmade.
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Today we explore yesterday’s radio ratings and drill into the performance of the ABC’s flagship network Radio National since the controversial 2020 decision to axe the 7.45am bulletin.
Radio National’s disappearing audience
It’s getting hard to justify one of the assumptions at the top of this article. Can a radio program which only averages 64,000 listeners across Australia’s five biggest cities really be the most influential?
Yesterday’s ratings survey - the fifth of the eight annual releases - was an absolute stinker for ABC Radio National, the nation’s best resourced speech radio station.
It was the network’s worst breakfast audience since before the pandemic began and, as far as I can tell, the worst the timeslot has had since GfK took on the ratings system in 2014. The audience is half what it was before the pandemic began.
In Melbourne (averaging 20,000 listeners), Brisbane (5,000) and Perth (4,000), the 5.30am to 9am timeslot hit new lows for RN. Sydney’s 25,000 was a drop on the previous survey (but not the worse of all time); and Adelaide’s 10,000 was the best in more than two years - go figure.
It takes a chart to understand the trend.
It’s worth being clear, by the way, that although the broadcasters have access to more detailed data, the publicly available information covers wider timeslots. So although RN Breakfast occupies the 6am to 9am timeslot (with a 20 minute break for AM in the middle), this 5.30am - 9am data does not quite overlap.
A couple of assumptions to dispel, too. The survey includes those listening through digital radio or via live streaming on apps, smart speakers or mobile devices. So the theory that the loss is because of changed technological habits doesn’t necessarily hold.
According to the GfK data, the average number of people listening to live radio across the five cities in the timeslot was 2.392m. That 64,000 represents a metro share for Radio National of just 2.7%.
Another assumption might be that the hunger for information in the early stages of the pandemic changed listening behaviour, and we’re simply seeing a return to old patterns. That also doesn’t hold up.
The first survey of 2020 was conducted in January and February, before the lockdowns began, while the second survey covering February and March only caught a little of the changed patterns. So those two columns on the far left of the graph represent the last of the pre-pandemic normal.
The boost in listening you might have expected to see because of hunger for information during the pandemic was counteracted by fewer people being in their cars for the morning commute.
Mind you, we’ll never see listening data from the early months of the lockdown, as the third, fourth and fifth surveys of 2020 were cancelled because researchers were unable to knock on doors to ask people to complete their diaries.
And at the end of 2021, Fran Kelly stepped down from RN Breakfast after 16 years. In the five surveys since then, her successor Patricia Karvelas’s audience has consistently fallen with the one exception of the fourth survey which covered the election period.
The comparisons with other speech broadcasters are embarrassing. Four talk-based shows draw bigger audiences in their one city than RN breakfast does for its 64,000 across all five.
In Sydney alone, 2GB’s Ben Fordham averages 132,000 while ABC Sydney’s James Valentine draws 77,000.
In Melbourne, 3AW’s Ross Stevenson and Russel Howcroft average 134,000 while ABC Melbourne’s Sammy J averages 65,000.
It’s worth acknowledging, by the way, that the ABC does a terrific job in the podcasting sphere. Perhaps a greater proportion of its audience has shifted in that direction compared to commercial radio. Much of that output is not being publicly measured though because the organisation doesn’t participate in the industry’s Australian Podcast Ranker. I’d argue that it should.
It would be unfair to personalise the breakfast problem around Karvelas. A warm broadcaster who still engages with (an often irrationally hostile) public on social media, she carved a niche in her previous slot on RN Drive.
RN’s audience problem does not just extend to breakfast. The RN Drive audience appears to be missing Karvelas. Her successor Andy Park is pulling in shares of just 1.3% in Sydney, 1.7% in Melbourne, 2.1% in Brisbane, 2.0% in Adelaide and 1.3% in Perth.
At least one of the problems for the network may be one of marketing. When did you last see an ad reminding you of the existence of RN Breakfast or RN Drive? Spending money on marketing anything from the ABC is politically risky though - it can seem like a waste of money to politicians.
However, spending money on a network that hardly anyone listens to is even harder to justify.
The ABC offered the following comment:
In 2022 ABC Radio is coming off two exceptionally strong years for share and reach, driven mainly by audiences seeking information on the COVID-19 pandemic and emergency information around extreme weather events as well as seeking to connect with others in their community. In 2021, ABC Radio had its highest survey reach and share in more than a decade and a year earlier, triple j also had its highest survey reach in more than a decade. In 2022 those numbers have dropped from their peak and have mostly settled back to where they were pre-pandemic.
ABC Local Radio continues to engage strongly with its capital city and regional audiences. In the five capital cities the network is on par with its pre-pandemic share and well ahead of its pre-pandemic reach and the network has leading programs in a number of timeslots across the country. Its digital and social content is growing strongly.
ABC’s youth network triple j continues to reach nearly 3.2 million people each week across metro and regional Australia on linear radio, plus millions more with daily and weekly social content. It is Australia’s number one radio network on Facebook, Instagram, Spotify and YouTube with highly engaged audiences on those platforms, that continue to grow.
While RN’s reach and share has dropped from 10-year highs over the past two years, the network has seen strong growth for its on-demand and podcast content as its audience time-shifts content across the day and week. Its flagship Breakfast program continues to set the daily news agenda. The program has seen a dip in audience this year, which was expected following the retirement of its high profile presenter Fran Kelly at the end of 2021.
ABC Classic has remained steady across many years, with share down slightly on previous years and reach up. In the most recent survey of this year, the network recorded its third highest reach in more than a decade, reaching close to one million listeners weekly.
In 2022 ABC News Radio has recorded its highest average reach (year to date) since 2009 with more than one million listeners.
All of ABC’s digital-only stations, except for ABC Kids listen, have seen substantial growth year on year, with triple j Unearthed up almost 40 per cent with close to 200,000 listeners.
Metro Radio Ratings are just one part of the listening picture. ABC is delivering audio content where audiences are looking for it – and that is increasingly not on traditional radio delivery platforms. Listening behaviours are evolving and the ABC will continue to meet our audiences wherever they are.
Editing note: I’ve removed a reference to the axing of the 7.45 am news bulletin, which I mistakenly said included RN. It was only on metro and local stations.
The Unmade Index: End of the rally?
With today’s Australian Financial Review calling an end to the ASX relief rally, The Unmade Index followed the same path on Tuesday, finally falling back below 700 points.
Yesterday’s 1.67% drop took The Unmade Index down to 694.4 points, meaning the index of Australia’s ASX-listed media and marketing stocks is once again more than 30% below it’s 1000-point opening from the beginning of the year.
Yesterday was a bad day for broadcasting stocks, with ARN owner HT&E falling nearly 5%, Nine (which reports its annual results tomorrow) down nearly 3%, Southern Cross Austereo falling 2.7% and Seven West Media dropping just over 1%.
Ooh Media was the only one of the big media stocks to have a good day yesterday, with its price jumping 5.6%. That follows a rises of 8.5% on Monday following the release of a good set of half year numbers. More on that in Best of the Week on Saturday.
Unmade returns tomorrow in podcast form. I’ll be talking to ex-adman Nigel Marsh about his new book, his reinvention as a podcaster and why he is delighted to no longer be working for moronic bosses.
Have a great day.
Toodlepip…
Tim Burrowes
letters@unmade.media
ABC NewsRadio breakfast (which I expect has a fraction the budget of its RN counterpart) pulls just under half a million nationwide. I’m not sure by what measure the ABC can claim the RN Breakfast Show is the “most influential” even within its own stable of stations.